The Yankees Are Finalists for Tatsuya Imai — Here’s Why He’s Worth the Hype

The Tatsuya Imai Market Is Heating Up

The market for Tatsuya Imai is officially heating up. Imai has until January 2nd to sign a free-agent deal with an MLB club; otherwise, he will return to his NPB team for the upcoming season. According to Francys Romero, roughly five MLB teams have shown legitimate interest in the 27-year-old Japanese ace, with the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs emerging as the expected finalists.

With the Yankees potentially positioning themselves to land Imai, I wanted to take a deeper look at what kind of pitcher MLB teams would be getting—and why I believe his 2025 adjustments could make him a high-end major-league starter.

Imai's 2025 Improvements

Imai enjoyed the best season of his career in 2025, posting a sub-2.00 ERA for the first time in his eight-year NPB tenure. He also set career highs in both strikeout rate (27.8%) and walk rate improvement, showcasing a pitcher who took a meaningful step forward in both stuff and command. Below is a comparison of his 2024 vs 2025 numbers:

Imai Year Comp	2024	2025
K%	24.2	29.4
BB%	11.4	5.9
FIP	3.69	1.42
xFIP	3.44	1.85
Chase%	29.1	32.1
CSW%	28.9	31.0
Avg Fastball (MPH)	93.9	95.3
Slider Usage %	30	46

One of the most notable changes Imai made in 2025 was lowering his arm angle, dropping it from roughly 33 degrees to 25 degrees. This adjustment helped him generate more run and ride on his fastball, making the pitch more efficient and producing more consistent results. As a result, Imai increased his fastball usage in the top half of the zone by 5%, where it became particularly effective.

Why His Release Point Matters

To better understand why this arm-angle change is so important, it’s worth examining Imai’s release height. He releases his four-seam fastball from approximately five feet, compared to the MLB average of 5.8 feet in 2025. That puts his release point lower than roughly 96% of right-handed MLB pitchers last season.

	Imai FB Avg	MLB FB Avg
Velocity (MPH)	94.8	94.5
Vertical Break	13.5"	15.8"
Horizontal Break	14.7"	7.8"
Vertical Approach Angle (VAA)	-4.2°	-4.7°

According to Lance Brozdowski, when you factor in Imai’s height relative to his VAA, his fastball actually grades out in the 98th percentile—a critical indicator of how deceptive and effective the pitch could be against MLB hitters.

Here is Imai's 4 seam success vs MLB Avg:

	Imai's FB Success	MLB Avg FB Success
Strike Rate	69%	67%
Zone Rate	53%	58%
Swing Miss	20%	22%
Zone Miss	12%	18%

It’s also important to note the philosophical differences between NPB and MLB hitters. NPB offenses tend to emphasize contact, while MLB hitters are far more focused on damage, which could actually play into Imai’s strengths given the movement profile of his fastball.

A Breakdown of His Pitch Mix:

In 2025, Imai’s pitch usage varied significantly depending on hitter handedness. Here is a charted breakdown of his pitch usage from 2025 and how it differed vs RHB and LHB:

Against right-handed batters, Imai was essentially a two-pitch pitcher, leaning heavily on his four-seam fastball and a uniquely shaped slider often referred to as a “wrong-way” slider. Against left-handed batters, he expanded his arsenal, mixing in a changeup, splitter, and Vulcan change, which collectively accounted for about 11% of his usage.

The “Wrong-Way” Slider

Imai’s slider is particularly intriguing. It earns the “wrong-way” label because it generates significant arm-side movement (-2.4 inches of horizontal break)—the opposite of a traditional slider, which typically moves glove-side (MLB average: +5.5 inches). This unique movement profile allows it to tunnel exceptionally well off his fastball, creating deception and producing strong results. Lance Brozdowski has highlighted this pitch as a standout component of Imai’s arsenal. Slider:

While Imai’s splitter is used more sparingly, it compares very favorably to MLB averages:

	Imai	MLB Avg
Velocity (MPH)	85.5	86.7
Vertical Break	5.4"	3"
Horizontal Break	15.1"	11.2"
Spin Rate (rpm)	1,979	1,359

Jeff Passan of ESPN, has also mentioned that Imai added a sinker to his mix. Given how much movement he already gets on his four-seamer, it’s possible the pitch was occasionally lumped in with that offering. Developing a more clearly defined sinker could be critical for his MLB success, as pitchers with similar fastball profiles—such as Joe Ryan, Luis Castillo, and Luis Ortiz—typically deploy a sinker 10–15% of the time.

Overall, Imai features three to four pitches that grade out extremely well and appear well-suited for a transition to MLB.

His Projected Contract:

Jared Diamond of The Wall Street Journal has reported that teams may be willing to pay $150–200 million for Imai. Based on projected AAVs across multiple outlets, a reasonable estimate would be a 7–8 year deal with an annual value in the $20–25 million range.

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, I believe Tatsuya Imai would be an excellent fit for the Yankees. I generally prefer making financial commitments rather than depleting the farm system to acquire pitching talent. If I were ranking the pitchers reportedly available this offseason—factoring in cost, opportunity, and upside—Imai would be a close second behind my top choice, Freddy Peralta.

That said, I would be absolutely thrilled if the Yankees landed Imai. Beyond his on-field impact, re-establishing a strong presence in the NPB market would further solidify the Yankees as a premier destination for future Japanese stars looking to come stateside.

Let me know your thoughts, and be sure to follow me on X (@JosephEsposito0) to stay up to date on my latest Yankees articles and analysis.