I Want Cody Bellinger Back — But the Yankees Shouldn’t Overpay

The Yankees’ offseason has, in many ways, been held hostage by Cody Bellinger.

Since the start of the winter, it has been clear that the Yankees’ top priority is bringing Bellinger back. Numerous outlets have reported this for over a month, and even more so in the past week, with Bellinger being labeled the team’s “top priority.” However, those same reports have also indicated that a sizeable gap remains between the two sides.

Let me be clear: I want Cody Bellinger back.But there is a hard stop for me in negotiations — and a line I would not cross to make it happen.

Today, I’m going to make the case for why the Yankees should not cave to Bellinger’s demands.

My Max Deal for Cody Bellinger

Before diving into the concerns, I want to outline what I believe is a fair deal for both sides — and the absolute maximum I would offer.

My max offer:5 years, $140 million ($28M AAV)

This is more than fair for Bellinger. At that AAV, he would be the 5th-highest-paid outfielder in baseball, trailing only Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts.

Given that Bellinger is represented by Scott Boras, it’s not hard to see where the negotiation stance is coming from. This offseason, Boras has already secured:

• Pete Alonso: 5 years, $155M ($31M AAV)

• Kyle Schwarber: 5 years, $150M ($30M AAV)

From Boras’ perspective, the logic is simple: if he can get $30+ million per year for a first baseman and a designated hitter, then surely he can get at least that — if not more — for a versatile outfielder like Bellinger.

This is where I strongly disagree.

Why I Won’t Go Past That Number

On paper, Bellinger was very good in 2025:

• 4.9 WAR (2nd-best season of his career)

• 125 wRC+ (2nd-best mark over the past six seasons)

Defensively, he remains a strong corner outfielder:

• LF: 4 OAA / 4 FRV

• RF: 2 OAA / 4 FRV

• CF: -1 OAA / 0 FRV (roughly average)

His versatility is undeniably valuable. So why the hesitation?

Let’s start with age.

Bellinger is entering his age-31 season, and much of his value comes from defense, athleticism, and speed — the exact traits that tend to decline first. While you can point to his strong offensive year in 2025, the underlying data suggests some caution is warranted.

The Regression Risk

Here’s a look at Bellinger’s actual production versus his expected metrics from last season:

Metric	Actual	Expected	Difference (+=overperformed/-=underperformed)
Batting Average vs xBA	.266	.254	+.012
wOBA vs xwOBA	.347	.322	+.025
SLG vs xSLG	.480	.416	+.064

Bellinger outperformed his expected stats across the board.

Does playing as a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium help? Absolutely. His pull-air profile plays extremely well there. But even accounting for that, this level of overperformance raises legitimate concerns about regression toward the mean as he moves deeper into his 30s.

Final Thoughts

I believe Bellinger likely has two, maybe three more seasons where he can produce at a high-end, 4+ WAR level. But he is not the type of player you overpay for in free agency.

A five-year deal should be the absolute maximum in terms of length. While the Yankees have shown a willingness in recent years to add extra years to lower AAV, the DJ LeMahieu contract from the 2020 offseason should serve as a cautionary tale — especially when dealing with a player whose value is heavily tied to athleticism.

Cody Bellinger is a good player.

He is not a great, franchise-defining player.

That distinction matters when you’re committing nine-figure money well into a player’s decline years.

What do you think?

Is a 5-year, $140M deal fair for Bellinger, or should the Yankees go further and risk overpaying to bring him back?

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