The Yankees Are Betting on Paul Blackburn; Is it Worth the Risk?

On Saturday, the Yankees re-signed Paul Blackburn to a one-year, $2 million MLB contract. At first glance, this move may seem surprising, as Blackburn didn’t leave a lasting impression in his brief stint with the Yankees in 2025. After being claimed off waivers from the Mets in August, Blackburn pitched in 8 games, totaling 15.1 innings with a 5.28 ERA and 16 strikeouts. Given these numbers, one might wonder: Why are the Yankees giving him a guaranteed MLB contract for the 2026 season?

To understand the decision, I took a deeper look at Blackburn’s performance with the Yankees, and the data reveals some notable improvements after his transition from the Mets. Here are some key stats to consider:

	w/ Mets	w/ Yankees
K/9	6.85	9.39
BB/9	3.04	2.35
GB %	41.0	48.9
xERA	4.86	3.01
xFIP	4.58	3.54
SIERA	4.60	3.25

Key Takeaways

From these stats, it's clear that Blackburn made significant strides in several key areas. He increased his strikeouts, lowered his walks, and improved his groundball rate. These changes led to much better expected outcomes than what his raw ERA and other surface-level stats might suggest.

But how did he make these improvements, and can they be sustained moving forward? It seems that the Yankees made some adjustments to Blackburn's pitch usage, which could explain his improved performance. Here's a breakdown of those changes:

	w/ Mets	w/ Yankees
Four Seam Fastball (%)	5.4	0.8
Cutter (%)	25.0	31.4
Sinker (%)	26.2	37.6
Changeup (%)	10.1	9.5
Slider (%)	19.1	11.2
Curveball (%)	14.2	9.5

Pitch Usage Changes

The Yankees essentially eliminated Blackburn’s four-seam fastball and significantly increased his usage of the cutter and sinker. They also decreased his reliance on the slider and curveball. These adjustments were likely aimed at maximizing his strengths while limiting weaknesses in his pitch mix.

Another significant change was an increase in Blackburn's velocity across several pitches:

	w/ Mets	w/ Yankees
Four Seam Fastball (MPH)	92.4	92.5
Cutter (MPH)	89.5	90.7
Sinker (MPH)	92.0	93.4
Slider (MPH)	81.5	82.2
Curveball (MPH)	80.7	80.2
Changeup (MPH)	86.1	87.3

Results from Adjustments

Blackburn was able to add around 1 MPH or more to his cutter, sinker, and changeup, while also increasing his slider velocity by nearly 1 MPH. These changes helped him generate more swings and misses, as reflected in his improvement in O-Contact% (swings and misses on pitches outside the zone) which dropped from 63.9% with the Mets to 58.6% with the Yankees. Additionally, he was more effective at filling up the strike zone, as evidenced by his Called Strike % increasing from 15.3% to 18.2%.

A Familiar Situation: The Luke Weaver Comparison

This situation is reminiscent of when the Yankees claimed starting pitcher Luke Weaver off waivers in 2023. After making some tweaks to his pitch mix, the Yankees offered him a guaranteed contract, and the results were promising. Weaver later signed a lucrative $22 million deal with the Mets. Could Blackburn’s situation play out similarly?

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, this move is definitely intriguing. While it's hard to ignore Blackburn’s improvements after the Yankees made changes to his pitch mix, it’s still a bit of a gamble to give him a guaranteed MLB roster spot in 2026, especially with the team needing to improve in several areas.

There is potential here, but we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out after a full offseason of adjustments.

What do you think of the Paul Blackburn move? Do you agree or disagree with the Yankees' decision, and why?

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