Trent Grisham Returns to the Bronx: What It Means for the Yankees

A Surprising Decision

Trent Grisham will be returning to the Bronx for the 2026 season after accepting the qualifying offer worth $22 million. Many insiders suggested that Grisham would test the free-agent market and decline the QO. However, he chose to take the one-year deal.

I’ve seen a lot of chatter online about the Yankees offering Grisham the QO in the first place — and even more frustration about him accepting it. But I think Yankees fans are overlooking just how phenomenal he truly was at the plate in 2025. Sure, his postseason performance was lackluster, but by nearly all projection models, including FanGraphs, Grisham ranked as the third-best outfielder in this free-agent class, right behind Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger.

Grisham's 2025 Performance

Some fans may worry that Grisham’s breakout season was a fluke. But I’m here to tell you he actually underperformed his expected metrics based on his batted-ball data. Here are his numbers from 2025:

BA: .235 vs xBA: .249

wOBA: .353 vs xwOBA: .366

SLG: .464 vs xSLG: .481

As you can see, Grisham actually underperformed relative to the quality of contact. When you combine this with his elite plate discipline (17.3% Chase Rate — 99th percentile; 14.1% Walk Rate — 96th percentile), you essentially have an elite leadoff profile vs. RHP — minus the speed.

In conclusion, Yankees fans shouldn’t be groaning that Grisham is back. If he performs at his projected levels (FanGraphs projects him for 2.7 WAR in 2026), and with 1 WAR costing roughly $8 million on the open market, he’s basically being paid exactly his value.

The Bigger Question: Who's in Left Field?

Now, let’s tackle the bigger question: With center field filled, who should be the Yankees’ starting LF in 2026?

The Cody Bellinger vs. Kyle Tucker Debate

This is one of the more surprising debates in Yankees-land right now. To me, it isn’t much of one. Kyle Tucker is far and away the better player. That’s no shot at Cody Bellinger — he’s a great player — but it speaks more to how truly game-changing an addition Tucker would be for the Yankees.

When Grisham first accepted the QO, my initial assumption was that this move took the Yankees out of the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes entirely. But after reading multiple reports from insiders around the league — including those close to teams like the Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Mets (all believed to be top suitors) — it’s actually not clear that anyone is banging down the door for Tucker. Instead, those teams appear more connected to Bellinger.

Which raises the question: Is Kyle Tucker going to get as much as we originally thought when the offseason began?

Based on current interest levels, it’s possible we end up in a situation where Bellinger lands somewhere around $28 million annually while Tucker sits around $36 million. If that’s the case, it’s a no-brainer to spend the extra money for the clear upgrade in Tucker.

As mentioned earlier, you generally pay about $8 million per 1 WAR in free agency. FanGraphs projects Bellinger for 3 WAR, while Tucker projects for 4.4 WAR. These numbers will adjust slightly depending on their new home park, but both players would likely see a minor uptick if they signed with the Yankees.

In conclusion, I don’t think the internal debate for the Yankees is about who they prefer — the Yankees already made a legitimate effort to trade for Tucker last offseason before he was ultimately dealt to the Cubs. The real question is this:

Is the price gap small enough to justify paying the premium for Tucker, while still having room to shore up the rest of the roster (SP depth, 1–2 relievers, bench pieces)?

Bellinger is a fine player, and I would be on board with bringing him back depending on years and price. But my clear preference is Tucker because I genuinely believe he is the lineup-altering star the Yankees need.

Is Tatsuya Imai the Perfect Fit for the Yankees?

The Yankees have several major questions in the rotation heading into 2026. Gerrit Cole is returning from Tommy John surgery after missing the entire 2025 season. Carlos Rodón underwent surgery to remove a bone spur. Clarke Schmidt had TJ surgery during the summer of 2025. Cole and Rodón are expected to be ready around May–June, while Schmidt may not return until August–September.

With these types of arm injuries, you need contingency plans — especially since more injuries typically pop up in Spring Training as pitchers ramp up.

Right now, the Yankees would enter the 2026 season with either Allan Winans or Ryan Yarbrough as their No. 5 starter. These are the types of arms you want making spot starts, not holding down rotation spots for 1–2 months (even though Yarbrough was admirable when thrust into that role last year).

With that said, Tatsuya Imai makes a ton of sense for the Yankees for several reasons:

1. The Yankees are trying to re-enter the NPB market.

Brian Cashman has said this directly, and multiple insiders have reported the same. The Yankees believe there is value in international pitching, and Imai fits that mold perfectly.

2. His projected contract is extremely reasonable.

Most projections place his AAV between $22.5M–$25M. For a pitcher who legitimately projects as a high-end No. 2/3 starter, that is a bargain relative to the current SP market.

3. High-end starting pitching wins championships.

Look no further than the 2025 World Series champion Dodgers. Their ability to deploy Glasnow, Snell, and Yamamoto however they wanted — especially in Game 7 — was the deciding factor. You need weapons.

4. The Yankees are a
perfect
fit for Imai’s preferences.

Insiders have consistently suggested Imai wants:

• An East Coast team

• A roster without another Japanese star so he can stand alone

• A chance to take down the Dodgers

• A big-market environment

  
  

Few organizations check all those boxes like the Yankees.

That’s why I believe this could be the perfect marriage between player and team.

Please let me know your thoughts on all of the topics discussed in this article.

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